Weekly smart money tracker: what are whales doing? 6-Mar-23

Hello anon,

We tracked the most interesting onchain wallet movements of whales / smart money, to understand how they are behaving while the market slightly retraced

Broader Overview:

March 4th had the highest stablecoins inflows to exchanges since November (FTX crash), of over $1.4bn. This is pretty interesting as the market retracement was not that big. This reveals there is still a lot of sidelined capital.

This is confirmed by by the chart below: sidelined capital is going down, but still way higher than whole 2021 and 1H22 as well

Interesting to note that the spike of stables inflow around 20 November 2022 represented market bottom

The tokens which were sold the most by smart money / whales were the following:

• Lido

• TonCoin

• BUSD (due to recent regulatory enforcements)

• AAVE

• SHIB

Among the tokens which were bought the most by smart money / whales, there are some interesting ones:

• 1Inch

• DYDX

• MATIC

Notable onchain transactions:

1) Sizable selling by Jump trading

• On 5th of March, Jump trading has deposited 4,800 ETH (c. $7.7mln) on various CEXs to sell

• This was done in several transactions, with biggest ones being 546ETH and 459ETH

• Interesting to note that sizable transactions are basically all done by Jump only; every other sizable funds have disappeared

2) LINK non circulating supply moving funds to Binance

• Addresses from LINK non circulating supply transferred c.6m LINK (c.$42mln) to Binance

• LINK Team addressed the movement as as needed to expand the ecosystem

 3) LIDO whale selling part of his $30mln portfolio

• On 2nd March, address 0x7d68a49754c55f1fb410f535f2b82a16f64481b6 sold 3.6mln LIDO ($9.4mln): he derisked 24% of its LIDO portfolio

• Address still holds 11.3mln LIDO ($29.5mln), which he bought on 1st March

• Address also holds $6mln in AAVE and $3mln in RIBBON

 4) No Major selling pressure after SAND unlock on 14th February

• You can see how the smart money balance increased on14th Feb unlock in the chart below

• Whales / smart money balance have been stable since

• What happened in the past?

  • Unlock in February 2021 Smart money balance went down by 25% from Feb to May, then there was a big market correction and big dump due to market conditions, where balance went down 85% compared to unlock; difficult to separate the effect of the unlock to the market correlation 

  • Unlock in February 2022 Smart money balance was stable until May 2022, when again we had a very big market drop. Again difficult to separate unlock effect with correlation with market: seems that whales tend to dump SAND in difficult times (no diamond hands)

  • Unlock in August 2022 Smart money didn't dump and, rather, increased their balance in SAND even ahead of February 2023 unlock; Very interesting, seems whales have been confident in future of the token across the last months

• Again, as mentioned, after February 2023 unlock there was no significant decrease in smart money balance This seems positive for the token, interesting how the chart will evolve in future

Couple of profitable wallets to follow

1) 4074.eth (wallet 0x2592552707b9575afb566178134118a69d97fe29)

• Wallet has been trading since October 2020, and profited on almost every trade it took

• Did +$41k profit on ETH, and cumulative P&L is $66k

2) Wallet 0x953533d6d085c503f6ec78a66cb2f454d090faed

• Wallet has been trading since October 2020

• Completed 1,800 transactions over the period

• He realised a P&L of $1.3m

• Below his major wins ($900k realised profit on ETH an $560 realised profit on KP3R)

Below his biggest losses: nothing too big compared to wins, except for a $319k realised loss on ICE